We know who is good now, but how do we gauge players over the long-term? Who really is the best player, or actually, value over the next five seasons? We hope to add some insight with our new rankings. We will start by rating them position, and then overall.
- Evan Longoria
- Hanley Ramirez
- David Wright
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Adrian Beltre
- Brett Lawrie
- Alex Rodriguez
- Kevin Youkilis
- Pablo Sandoval
- David Freese
- Aramis Ramirez
- Mike Moustakas
- Pedro Alvarez
- Anthony Rendon
- Chase Headley
- Brent Morel
- Lonnie Chisenhall
- Ryan Roberts
- Nolan Arenado
- Josh Bell
Honarable Mentions: Ian Stewart, Juan Francisco, Casey McGehee
Longo is situated at #1, and I doubt there would be much dispute at the end of the 2011 season. But now things have changed, and Jose Reyes is in Miami. This means Hanley Ramirez will be eligible at 3B sometime in the 2nd week of the season. The fact that he will be SS/3B makes him very valuable in 2012. But I think Longo offers the safer bet, while there is still some upside to be realized. In fact, Hanley may offer less upside if you believe he’s already had his best statistical year. I would be more inclined to bet that Longo beats his best year before Hanley does, but neither are near a decline.
I may get a lot of flack for #3 as everybody and their mothers have it out for David Wright. The problem is, he is young, safe, and looks like he will stick at 3B. Zimmerman and Beltre are both close in comparison, but Wright could be traded in a season or two, no matter what the Mets are saying. This could put his value back on the map if he finds himself in a potent lineup. Talent-wise, I like Zimmerman over Wright but his injury history disturbs me. He also looks like he will be a Nat for the foreseeable future – for better or for worse. Beltre is the near-future gamble, and his defense is top-notch. Being in Texas is also hard to ignore and really see the gap between #3 and #5 to be negligible.
Lawrie has the most upside in this list and it would cause one great heartache if he were to pass on Lawrie for A-Rod or Youk. Lawrie has the entire package, and his potential floor should still be valuable. I won’t push Sandoval ahead of the vets even though he has been successful before. His long-term position might not be 3B, while A-Rod and Youk have no place to go as 1B is locked-up long-term for both empires. Panda is still young and should be a long-term top 10 talent. Freese rounds up the top 10 for his youth and past success.
A-Ram looked good in 2011, but has a building injury history working against him as well as his age. You gotta like him in 2012, but don’t expect any monster years beyond then. Moustakas could be top 10 by next year, as well as Alvarez. Moustakas has proven more at the Major Leage level, but you still can’t write-off Pedro’s potential. There’s very little upside left after him who have high-level pro experience. That’s why I’m looking at Rendon at #14. In six months Rendon may be over on the Second Basemen list, but for now we’ll keep him at 3B, since that was his college position. Anybody without any pro experience is risky to put this high, but the scouts love him, and the upside is there – but beware of the injury history. Headley comes in at #15 as he has had Major League success and should look to continue it for the Padres. If he gets moved to a hitter-friendly park, you could see his stock go up.
The last tier feature four unproven players, and one veteran. Morel should be in the meat of the Sox lineup and can prove he can make a top 10 case. The fact is, he hasn’t been stellar at any level, and I don’t see his ranking moving much either way by the end of the year. At #17 is Chisenhall who should receive a lot of playing time. I like his opportunity prospectus and should find himself in a competitive lineup in 2012. Roberts is in at #18 with his power/speed combo. His BA will never be great, and could reach dismal if he gets off track a bit. He also will be hitting low in the lineup and is no longer a spring chicken. Consider his upside to not be much more than what he brought in 2011. I love Arenado at #19 as a young stud who has a great approach at the plate. By next year he could jump anywhere from 5 to 10 spots. There’s no assurance he will remain at 3B for the next five years, but the Rockies have nobody there since shipping Ian Stewart off to Wrigley. Rounding out the rankings is Josh Bell, a once highly-coveted prospect. He will be given every opportunity to succeed in Baltimore. There is upside there, but up til now, he has yet to show he can hang in the bigs.