We know who is good now, but how do we gauge players over the long-term? Who really is the best player, or actually, value over the next five seasons? We hope to add some insight with our new rankings. We will start by rating them position, and then overall.
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Joey Votto
- Albert Pujols
- Mark Teixeira
- Billy Butler
- Ryan Howard
- Prince Fielder
- Eric Hosmer
- Adam Lind
- Freddie Freeman
- Kendry Morales
- Gaby Sanchez
- Justin Morneau
- Michael Morse
- Brett Wallace
- Justin Smoak
- Anthony Rizzo
- Mark Trumbo
- Brandon Belt
Honorable Mentions: Matt LaPorta, Yonder Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland, Chris Davis.
The first four names shouldn’t surprise anyone. Some may disagree on the order, but I think that all hinges on Pujols. I think it’s fair to say between the other three that the best investment is in the order of Gonzalez – Cabrera – Votto. But where does Pujols fit within those three? Gonzalez has a long-term deal in Boston. He couldn’t have been put in a better park and is showing what he can do outside of San Diego. Cabrera is arguably the best pure hitter in the bunch. Along with his youth, he could be #1. Attitude, ballpark and team bring him down a notch. But I still think he’s the better pick over Albert. I don’t see Votto putting up Pujolsian numbers for a five-year stretch (certainly one or two years within are possible), but do I see Albert continuing his run for another 3-4 years at least? With Votto in the Cincy bandbox, with a young talented lineup around him, I think the safe bet is with him.
At present day, Prince would be my #5, but I just can’t get comfortable for 5 years at his body weight. Tex has the long-term deal in NY, and like A-Gonz, this provides a boost in value. Butler is still young and should have nice young lineup around him for years to come. With his youth, I have no trouble taking him over some of the better present-day bats. Howard slots in at #7 because , unlike Fielder, he has lost weight and has a long-term deal in Philly. Fielder may be better for the next year or two, but if I’m making a long-term investment, I would err on the side of going with Howard.
Hosmer, at #9, is the first true prospect to hit this list, and it’s mighty impressive that he fits into the top 10. This guy had a great minor league career and is holding his own at the ripe age of 21. After missing out on the proven studs, I would rather take Hosmer long-term, than any other veteran firstbasemen. Adam Lind is exhibiting great power potential, and this guy could easy jump a few slots by next year. However, we have seen his bad side, so even though he’s having a great 2011, we can’t ignore that he had a disappointing 2010.
Freeman heads up the bottom half of the list. He’s got massive power potential, and I love the organization. I think he has a good chance of developing into a top 5 first-baseman within five years. Morales is a proven talent, that’s why he’s so high for an injured player. Sanchez is showing he can play and slots in at #13. Morneau’s injury history is troublesome, but he’s still young enough to sign long-term for a reasonable price.
From #15 on we see only unknowns and capped upside. Wallace, Smoak and Rizzo are still young with a good amount of potential. What bothers me is Smoak has exhibited a ton of power and should be in Seattle for most of the next five years. Rizzo has tremendous power upside, but might be a 25-HR guy in a 35-HR body as long as he stays in San Diego. Morse, Trumbo and Belt have limited upside for me, but should be solid – especially if you need a safety net for Morales, Morneau or Fielder.
UPDATE: Kevin Youkilis was not included because he will likely lose 1b eligibility for the next few years.