The offseason has officially begun, and we have a lot of catching up to do. Today we will start with our Top 100 list. From there we will provide our top 15 positional rankings. These next posts will concentrate on 2012 standard leagues (no keeper or dynasty considerations). Let’s begin:
FIRST Round
1. Miguel Cabrera, 1B DET
2. Matt Kemp, OF LA
3. Albert Pujols, 1B ANA
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF BOS
5. Jose Bautista, OF TOR
6. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B BOS
7. Justin Upton, OF ARI
8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL
9. Joey Votto, 1B CIN
10. Robinson Cano, 2B NYY
11. Evan Longoria, 3B TB
12. Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL
I don’t love this round. This is one of those few years I really want to be at the top of the draft. Miggy or Kemp seems to be the consensus favorites, while a lot of people are wary of Albert in the Top 3. It’s acknowledged that he is #3, but people want to avoid him. While I hear the arguments, I’d much rather Albert at #3, than Jacoby at #4 or Bautista at 35 or A-Gonz at #6. I think Albert will be fine this year and could easily be the #1 player. Ellsbury could also be the #1 player, but his injury history keeps him out of the top 3. Bautista is still a good value b/c of his 3B eligibility, but I would have him out of the top 10 if he didn’t carry that designation. I’m a little bit lower on Tulo due to a little more depth at SS this year.
The Sacrifice – Jose Bautista
I guess I need one more season to be a true believer. You lock 3B and/or OF up, but if he only hits 30-35 bombs, you will be wishing you had taken Gonzalez, Upton or Tulo.
The Steal – Evan Longoria
This kid is still young. I expect him to bounce-back and be the best 3B by the end of the season. At the end of the first round, I’m thinking he could deliver top 5 value.
SECOND Round
13. Prince Fielder, 1B DET
14. Justin Verlander, SP DET
15. Curtis Granderson, OF NYY
16. Dustin Pedroia, 2B BOS
17. Clayton Kershaw, SP LA
18. Jose Reyes, SS MIA
19. Hanley Ramirez, SS MIA
20. Roy Halladay, SP PHI
21. Andrew McCutchen, OF PIT
22. Mike Stanton, OF MIA
23. Cliff Lee, SP PHI
24. Tim Lincecum, SP SF
I like the 2nd round much better than the 1st in terms of risk management. You should be able to escape this round with an assured value. Every player on this list should produce nicely. You can argue that Halladay is a little older, or Verlander will regress, or Reyes is injury prone and Stanton is still young, but those arguments can’t dissuade me much. Hanley could be troublesome in that we don’t know how he will react to the position change and the slight to his ego. I think Stanton could take it to another level and provide upwards of late first round value.
The Sacrifice – Justin Verlander
It’s rare that the #1 pitcher from the year prior follows through and repeats such an incredible year. Position players have much less variance. I’m not picking Verlander if I have an early 2nd round pick, so I guess I’m not getting him.
The Steal – Hanley Ramirez
I almost went with Reyes, b/c his value could be 1st round by year’s end. However, Hanley produces in all categories, and will have amazing position flexibility. As far as the draft goes, it allows me to keep more options open in case a value SS or 3B falls to me later in the draft. And don’t forget, Hanley was a #2 pick not too long ago.
THIRD Round
25. Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX
26. Felix Hernandez, SP SEA
27. Josh Hamilton, OF TEX
28. CC Sabathia, SP NYY
29. Mark Teixeira, 1B NYY
30. Cole Hamels, SP PHI
31. Jered Weaver, SP ANA
32. Matt Holliday, OF STL
33. Adrian Beltre, 3B TEX
34. David Price, SP TB
35. David Wright, 3B NYM
36. Carlos Santana, C CLE
The third round provides a nice balance of talent. The first round is all hitters, while the second round brought in a group of elite arms. In this round you can still expect to find an upper-tier SP, as well as a bat. Felix Hernandez or David Price could bring substantial value as they seem to have the most remaining untapped potential. I’m usually reluctant to take a catcher in the first three rounds, but Santana’s presence is due more to the dearth of impact bats.
The Sacrifice – David Wright
I’m not putting David here as a knock, but I think his days of climbing the charts are over. I don’t know how much added value is here. You might be in just as good of shape if you want for Youk, A-Ram or Sandoval.
The Steal – Jered Weaver
Weaver is a proven #1. His awesome now has added the best bat in the game. Not only do I expect his Ks and peripherals to be off the charts, but now his win opportunities should increase markedly as well.
FOURTH Round
37. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B WAS
38. Jay Bruce, OF CIN
39. Dan Haren, SP ANA
40. Elvis Andrus, SS TEX
41. Buster Posey, C SF
42. Hunter Pence, OF PHI
43. Paul Konerko, 1B CHW
44. Yovani Gallardo, SP MIL
45. Starlin Castro, SS CHC
46. Brian McCann, C ATL
47. Jon Lester, SP BOS
48. Nelson Cruz, OF TEX
I’m liking Zimmerman to have a good year. I’m fine plucking him after someone drafts Wright. I also am high on Bruce as someone who can have a monster year. I’m aggressive with Posey’s ranking because I believe his bat is just that good. There will also be two solid SS options that are important if you aren’t high on Rollins or A-Cab (which I’m not). It may be the time to take Andrus or Castro (now aren’t you glad you took Hanley in the 2nd?)
The Sacrifice – Buster Posey
I don’t blame anyone for taking a pass here on Posey. This is the value I project him to be (actually, I think he will be 3rd round value but nobody will draft him that high). He probably can’t go much higher up in value. If he doesn’t pickup where he left-off before his injury, then this pick could be bad.
The Steal - Yovani Gallardo
This guy has the stuff to be an elite pitcher. The question remains if he will make that next jump. He still is very young, but quite experienced. He had a really nice 2011 and I think he can do better in ’12.
FIFTH Round
49. Ryan Braun, OF MIL
50. Zack Greinke, SP MIL
51. Mike Napoli, C TEX
52. Michael Bourn, OF ATL
53. Eric Hosmer, 1B KC
54. Desmond Jennings, OF TB
55. Matt Cain, SP SF
56. Dan Uggla, 2B ATL
57. Brett Lawrie, 3B TOR
58. Carl Crawford, OF BOS
59. Shin-Soo Choo, OF CLE
60. Craig Kimbrel, RP ATL
If you are that guy who grabs the first closer, than this might have to be your round b/c Kimbrel will certainly be selected at some point in the sixth round. I think it’s ill-advised, but what do I know. As you can tell, there are two big surprises: Braun and Crawford. Braun is here for understandable reasons, but I will forewarn that he will likely go much earlier. If you’re in an H2H league, consider him in the 3rd round. Crawford is just scary and a wrist injury is the last thing you want wrong with a hitter you spent a 3rd or 4th round pick on. If he drops into the fifth or later, he’s certainly worth a flier. At this point though, I’m hopping on the Lawrie wagon.
The Sacrifice – Desmond Jennings
I know everyone and his mom loves this guy, but don’t forget his injury history. I’d like to see him cycle through another 162-game season in full health before committing to him with a fifth round pick. I’d rather take Bourn before (or after) him and feel safe.
The Steal – Shin-Soo Choo
Look, neither Lawrie, Jennings or Hosmer can be a steal. In fact, these are likely slight reaches. Choo has all around talent and is that player that can contribute wherever you need it. Cleveland’s lineup could be solid, and Choo will be in the middle of it.
SIXTH Round
61. Alex Gordon, OF KC
62. Alex Rodriguez, 3B NYY
63. Ian Kennedy, SP ARI
64. Brandon Phillips, 2B CIN
65. Matt Latos, SP CIN
66. Shane Victorino, OF PHI
67. James Shields, SP TB
68. Michael Young, DH TEX
69. Aramis Ramirez, 3B MIL
70. Rickie Weeks, 2B MIL
71. Adam Jones, OF BAL
72. B.J. Upton, OF TB
By round six we are coming onto players with limited upside. Yes, Latos or Adam Jones could offer more than expected. A-Ram could stay healthy for 150 games. Upton could finally become an elite outfielder (about as much chance as Juan Pierre has). So with that said, I believe this is a point where you start filling needs and adjusting your strategy depending on your first five picks. I think all 12 of these picks are somewhat interchangeable.
The Sacrifice – Brandon Phillips
Honestly, I’d rather wait for Weeks, Utley, Zobrist or Kendrick. I think last year was the best we can hope for. He should be productive, but I think the scarcity of upper-level SPs and 3B will get me leaning away from him.
The Steal – Ian Kennedy
Nobody can argue with Kennedy’s performance last year. The D-backs are certainly contenders and Kennedy could improve on his 2011. I like him as the best pitcher in this round because he has the upside of Latos and the polish of Shields.
SEVENTH Round
73. Drew Stubbs, OF CIN
74. Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS
75. Dan Hudson, SP ARI
76. Chase Utley, 2B PHI
77. Pablo Sandoval, 3B SF
78. Ben Zobrist, 2B TB
79. Drew Storen, RP WAS
80. Madison Bumgarner, SP SF
81. Jimmy Rollins, SS PHI
82. Joe Mauer, C MIN
83. Ricky Romero, SP TOR
84. Kevin Youkilis, 3B BOS
Ahh, the Strasburg round (not to be confused with the Harper round). A lot of people probably put Strasburg into the 6th but I can’t go there. Zimmermann hurt last year by getting shut-down in August, and the same will likely happen with Strasburg. If you are in an H2H, you probably want to take Hudson, and possibly even Romero ahead of St. Steven. I keep Mauer pretty low here compared to other rankings, which indicates how much closer he is to 2010 production than 2009.
The Sacrifice – Chase Utley
Yes, I’d rather have him later than Phillips earlier, but the injuries are scary. If he can play 140 games, I’m all-in. If not, it could be a long season trying to fill your 2B slot.
The Steal – Kevin Youkilis
If this guy is healthy, you better believe he is going to rake. This is a guy who could provide 3rd round value. Filling the hot-corner need, I love Youk in the 7th.
EIGHTH Round
85. Corey Hart, OF MIL
86. Michael Pineda, SP NYY
87. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS CLE
88. Jayson Werth, OF WAS
89. John Axford, RP MIL
90. Michael Cuddyer, OF COL
91. C.J. Wilson, SP ANA
92. Mike Morse, 1B WAS
93. Matt Wieters, C BAL
94. Cameron Maybin, OF SD
95. Jordan Zimmermann, SP WAS
96. Ichiro Suzuki, OF SEA
There is a good amount of OF talent in this round and the next one or two. You certainly want to be adding to that position around this time if you weren’t able to load-up early. You certainly don’t want to be looking for OFs later in the teen rounds. Also note that Corey Hart may be getting some work at 1B in Spring Training. That could be nice for eligibility purposes. Morse also has the dual-eligibility. I’m aggressive with Wieters because I believe he made a big stride in 2011, and I think he can make another one this year.
The Sacrifice – Michael Pineda
Some love him, some not so much. I think he is a great talent with a ways to go. I think he’ll be fine long-term, but everyone should be expecting that adjustments need to be made. He had a tougher 2nd-half than 1st last season, and without a developed changeup, he might have a tough time against lefties in Yankee stadium.
The Steal – Jordan Zimmermann
I put him higher than most people did and I still think he could jump up the ranks substantially. With the innings cap removed and a full-year post-TJ surgery under his belt, I think this guy is ready to compete. He has the stuff, the build and the makeup, and his offense is getting better day-by-day. Next year we could easily be talking about him as a 5th or 6th round pick.
THE Remainder
97. Lance Berkman, 1B/OF STL
98. Jonathan Papelbon, RP PHI
99. Mariano Rivera, RP NYY
100. Yu Darvish, SP TEX
I don’t know if Darvish is really #100, but he’s got to be close. He’s on a great team, has great stuff and is as confident as anyone else out there on the bump. I think his swagger, stature and repertoire means a lot even though he hasn’t faced a MLB hitter yet.
THE Misses
Bret Gardner – If he’s not at the top of the lineup, I’m not paying. I don’t see great average or counting production beyond SBs. I just think Coco Crisp much later, or Michael Bourn much earlier is the smarter play.
Josh Beckett – This guy’s skills diminished in 2011, yet he got lucky. Do not expect that to continue unless he decided to get in shape for the 2012 season. Time will tell, but I was trying to sell high in the 2nd-half of last year, so I’m certainly not buying at cost in 2012.
Tommy Hanson – Nobody likes his mechanics. He was shaky last year and could still have lingering injury issues. Unlike Beckett, there is some upside here, but it’s too risky for a top-100 pick. There are some other talented Braves pitchers you can pickup much later – I suggest doing that.